Designing Strategy Games — A Tale of Strategic Positioning in Politics

Alice’s Decision Game Theory Table

My quest to become more grounded in strategic thinking and leveraging game theory techniques in creating competitive advantage is ever-increasing. The lessons learnt and new realities of thinking I have been exposed to in the past couple of weeks are changing my view of the world. In fact, I am becoming more aware of systematic decision making through structured techniques such as game theory tables and game trees. I will briefly explain what a game theory table is, but read my previous post about game trees. However, let’s start by defining what a game is.

What is a Game?

Simply put, a game is any situation that requires a strategic decision to be made. Therefore, it follows to say that you do not need to be a math geek to make strategic decisions — in fact we do this daily. From choosing a career path, choice of breakfast, to what to wear to a job interview.

Game Theory Table

Also known as normal-form game, is a simple way to represent a game using matrices. In order to represent games in tables, player(s), should be able combine forward-thinking analysis with value judgement, meaning looking forward and reasoning backwards towards a strategy that leads to the highest value. In clear terms, for any given situation, a player should ask, “Will this decision path after four to six moves lead to a generally position or a bad one?” They then assign values to each of the possible outcomes, assuming it is the end of the game.

Example

A new fresh graduate, Alice, attending job interview has several decisions to make in preparing for the interview. One of which is her appearance. Assuming the job interview is with a leading financial institution which is heavy on corporate branding, she probably has strategic decisions to make colours to combine. Establishing the previous statement as a premise for a game, the table below represents her choice of what to wear as a matrix:

Alice’s Decision Game Theory Table

I have not assigned numbers to the outcomes of each decision. However, for more complex games, assigning numeric scores would provide a data-driven approach. However, I hope you get the idea from the outlined outcomes.

Looking at the game tree table above, Alice’s dominant strategy is to prepare well for the interview and align with the company’s corporate brand.

Game Theory and Political Strategy

Following Alice’s interview decision example above, we can see that expressing decisions as games is possible. Therefore, we can represent strategic political decisions with game theory table. To bring this home, I will draw on two examples — President Ronald Reagan tax reforms negotiations with Congress in 1981 and President Donald Trump impeachment current drama. The first example is culled from the book, Thinking Strategically, which is to establish precedent for the second example.

Example I: President Ronald Reagan Tax Reforms Negotiations

Please refer to the book: Thinking Strategically by Avinash K. Dixit, Chapter 5 — Pages 131 to 135.

Example II: President Donald Trump Impeachment Inquiry

In this narrative, there are several games — strategic decisions, we might play. Ranging from strategic moves between Democrats and Republicans in Congress, to decisions on how Vice President, Mike Pence, positions himself in the unfolding events. Hence, for the purpose of this post, I would play the second game: How should Vice President Mike Pence position with the unfolding events?

GAME PLAY: WOULD YOU RATHER ADVICE VICE PRESIDENT, MIKE PENCE, TO SUPPORT PRESIDENT TRUMP ALL THE WAY?

Consider the ongoing hullabaloo with the impeachment inquiry, and President Trump claiming that VP, Mike Pence, is well aware and involved in the investigation inquiry into VP, Joe Biden and his son, Hunter Biden. VP’s aides had released statements saying that Mike Pence was not aware of President Trump asking any favors of the Ukrainian President. Furthermore, there are also claims that Mike Pence met with Ukrainian representatives earlier in the year (around June or July) to discuss political matters.

With many arguments and facts popping up as events unfold over time, as a political strategist, using the game theory table as one of your tools, how you advice VP Mike Pence to position himself? Knowing fully well that, all possible outcomes have both positive and negative consequences.

HINT: Possible outcomes:

1. President Trump is impeached and VP, Mike Pence is sworn-in as President
2. Both President Trump and VP Mike Pence are both impeached.
3. President Trump is not impeached but VP Mike Pence maintained his stand of not having anything to do with the allegations
4. President Trump is not impeached and VP Mike Pence supports him all the way.

Game Play: President Trump and Vice President Mike Pence

I will be publishing my play of the game in coming posts. Feel free to share your views and comments with your own play.

I hope you enjoyed the post. If you’d like to talk strategy, please reach out to me via email: elesin.olalekan@gmail.com or follow me on Twitter: @elesinOlalekan